The number of existing-home transactions in France is expected to significantly decline in 2012 while prices may stabilize and stop the outbreak observed in recent years, say leaders of federations and networks of estate agents.
"The total number of transactions in the former expected to fall to 600000 in 2012, down nearly 15% compared to 2011, "said Laurent Vimont, president of Century 21 network, an estimate which is also that of Philippe Buyens, Network Director Guy Hiccups.
For François Gagnon, president of the branch network Era France, "many financial institutions have anticipated a price decline of 5% to 9% in 2012 with a simultaneous decrease of 8% of sales".
The President of the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim), René Pallincourt, fears for his part a sharper decrease of transactions mainly because "the removal of zero-interest loans for purchases in the old and the increase of taxation for capital gains on rental and second homes ".
This should have an impact on the employment of 30000 agencies, a doubling in 10 years, who in recent years spread to the Hexagon after the "boom" prices in the former (125% only for apartments between 2000 and 2011).
"In case of loss of triple-A by France, the interest rate on home loans may go up sharply," said M Vimont, which also concerned a "wait-and-found before each presidential election".
French banks are already "in the process of strengthening their supply of credit," said M Gagnon.
Interest rates on mortgages have averaged 3.93% in December 2011, up sharply from their historic low (3.22% on average) reached in November 2010, according to a study Observatory Housing Credit / CSA"Paris, gold bar of stone".
"But the pressure of demand due to the shortage of housing" should, according to M Pallincourt, preventing a sharp drop in prices.
MVimont table even on "an increase of 2% to 3% for the year 2012, demand is supported by those who can buy, especially in Paris became the gold bar of stone".
"These are mostly the owners, taking advantage of the gain realized on the sale of their previous property, and those belonging to the wealthier classes who can buy," said the president of Century 21.
The share of acquisitions made in respect of rental investment, an increase of 26% between the first and second half, now account for 20% of total sales, confirming that the French consider real estate as a safe haven rather than shares of companies in freefall.
Prices of old apartments in Paris peaked this summer, 835O euros/m2 on average, 835000 to 100 m2, after a surge of 21.3% increase in one year, according to lawyers.
Over the whole of France, prices in the former increased in 2011 compared to 2010 to 5.96% according to Century 21 (to 2Euros/m2 665 on average), a record, and 7.3% for Fnaim, well above inflation (2.5%).
But "for the first time since the end of the 2008 crisis, the housing market stalled," said M Vimont.
And prices were down 2.23% from the second half and first half 2011 for Century 21 and remained stable for Fnaim, thus ruling they believe the risk of creating a "bubble".
By Christian CHARCOSSEY |
