Suffered a decline in tax subsidies to housing and a rise in interest rates, the amount of loans granted to the French, after a slight decline in 2011, is expected to fall sharply in 2012.
The amount of the mortgage loan from banks amounted to about 160 billion euros in 2011, a slight decrease of almost 5% compared to 2010 (168 billion), according to a study by the Housing Credit / CSA published Thursday.
The year 2012 is expected to "sharp drop" around 130 billion euros, a dip of nearly 20%, according to Michel Mouillart, professor of economics at the University of Paris West and author of the study.
Three main causes are the cause of this sudden drop "lower borrower demand, removal of interest-free loan (PTZ) for purchases of existing homes and sharp decline in fiscalScellier advantage for investors acquiring new homes pourleslouer "said M. Mouillart.
If the prediction of MMouillart proved correct, the total loans granted in 2012 would fall below the 2008 level (140 billion), year of start of the crisis following the discovery of the case of U.S. home loans at risk (" subprime ") and bring back at 2004.
This new trend reversal occur after an explosion of these funds since the beginning of the century which contributed to the good performance of the property market in France: 70.8 billion in 2001, 87.3 in 2003, 143.7 in 2005 and the high of 170.2 Billion in 2007.
Just under a third of French households repaying mortgage, the rate edged up from 30.5% in 2010 to 31% according to a study by the household credit issued on January 19.
But households are now showing very careful with expectations of demand for new loans (including consumer) for 2012 to the lowest, according to this study.
The credits are distributed to 29% for the nine sector, 62.8% for the market of the former and 8.2% for the renovation. Rates should rise interest rates which continue to rise and conditions for the banks that have tightened, should play a role in this lower appetite for credit.
In December 2011, interest rate loans have averaged 3.94% against 3.86% in November, a jump of nearly 70 basis points compared to the lowest level since 1945 (3, 25% on average depending on the final figure) reached in November 2010, according to Housing Credit.
Only 47.2% of loans to the fourth quarter (and 43.2% endécembre) were below the "psychological barrier" of 4%.
"The need (for banks) to margin on new loans, the scarcity of resources available on the markets and the gradual rise in the cost of resources maintain the upward pressure on rates that should be accompanied by a further decline average durations "loans, says the study by the finance markets redidentials.
Consequences "should the average and up to 4.25% by next summer" and borrowers are becoming more affluent households who benefit from a greater contribution Personal "at the expense of younger customers ".
By Christian CHARCOSSEY |
